Climategate.com apologizes for having to pull this article soon after publication, for a day, to make some corrections that to errors that were made to Dr. Jan Zeman’s original text during the editing process. We’ve re-edited it with a lighter hand, and are re-releasing it now (2/21/10). Climategate.com takes full responsibility for any problems we have caused. – Administrator
I am proud to add Dr. Jan Zeman’s authoritative addendum to substantiate the claims made in my Czechgate article. With Dr. Zeman’s permission I have edited and revised his paper slightly for publication.
THE KLEMENTINUM RECORD – UHI AND LOCAL WARMING
by Dr. Jan Zeman
Recently was published another example of how oddly the “global warming agencies” (being in charge of constructing the so called “global mean temperatures” in their weird quest to support the theory of anthropogenic global warming) treat the historical temperature records. It was brought to the attention, that the unique and very valuable record from Prague Klementinum was literally, statistically raped. In the following image (in this case from GISS…but the NOAA version is in principle similar) you can see what is gone: the record was stripped of its most valuable part going from 1770′s to the second half of the 19th century, then cut again in 1939, the decade of 40′s left out, and then was attached completely another record from the station at the Prague Ruzyne airport, and the rest after the “amputations” then renamed–despite the fact the record of temperatures in Klementinum are still active and it is one of the oldest uninterrupted instrumental temperature record in the world, and is of exceptional value – especially for the contemporary climatology which recently stirs so many controversies.
Because John O’Sullivan’s original article was partially based on my research, I am taking this opportunity to offer a more detailed explanation of how I perceive Klementinum has been influenced by the urban heat island effect (UHI) so that we may conclude that there is a net warming figure of ~0.25°C in Prague for the last two centuries. This, in my opinion, casts a serious doubt over all the internationally promoted global warming scares.
Maybe it would be for some even an interesting literal story–not just a learning about numbers and history, but also containing a kind of lesson: Describing how the warming trend in recent decades and manipulation or even dumping of the historically valuable records can cheat us into believing that the recent warming is somehow very high relatively to past temperatures…and in the end–paradoxically–bring a kind of proof that it is not the case.
So, let’s begin.
When we look at the temperatures measured during the recent decades in Klementinum, we come to these figures of decadal* temperature averages:
- 1960-1969 : 9.68°C
1970-1979 : 10.08°C
1980-1989 : 10.11°C
1990-1999 : 10.74°C
2000-2009 : 11.34°C
If we then factor in the average temperature for the entire record in Klementinum we find an overall average of 9.61°C – immediately suggesting the warming in the recent decades was relatively very high at 1.66°C above the 1960’s average, or 1.73°C above the record’s average.
But, if we go in terms of the relatively short history of the instrumental temperature measurements, deep into the past, we can then also, in the very same but uncut Klementinum record, discover the quite warm decade 1790-1799.
The average temperature during the ancient decade 1790-1799 was 10.32°C–which is more than the average temperature in 1980′s (even we still don’t factor in the possible UHI in this particulate comparison and if we would do, it would be even above the average of 1990′s).
Then, using basic math, we can state that the temperature difference between decadal averages of our last decade 2000-2009 and the ancient decade 1790-1799 is +1.02°C – the warming during last 200 years in Prague. This is significant but not as much as the IPCC proposes.
But is this figure really true? Isn’t it even less?
Maybe it will be hard to imagine, but let’s board the time machine of our fantasy and depart for the past.
We will find ourselves in the middle of Prague, the capital of the Czech Kingdom, once independent and for many centuries being the capital of The Holy Roman Empire, since the times of the king Charles IV in 14th century, who made this city one of the splendid capitals of the Gothic ages–a center of culture and scholarship at one of the oldest Universities in the World. The population of Prague then was about 40-50 thousand.
But never mind. Now we are at the end of the 18th century and the Czech Kingdom was already long ago conquered by the Austrian Empire. After the 30 years war, it one of the darkest times in the central Europe’s history. It was the time of the last big religious war in Europe, when the mostly protestant population of the Czech country diminished by a third, mostly by plagues, the reform and ancient Czech aristocracy, when protestants were executed or chased out to the exile, and the rest of the population during this horrors re-catholized and Prague made a provincial city in terms of importance. Nevertheless, it has still been an enigmatic place at the crossroads of the historical turnovers.
We are now in 1790 and the emperor Joseph II just died. It was him, who under the influence of enlightenment, abolished the order of Jesuits in 1773.
And we now find ourselves in one of the most important convents of this order: Klementinum. It was founded by the order of Dominicans in 1227 at the right side of the river, just by the bridge, which later–in the times of the Charles IV–was rebuilt in stone and became a part of one of the beautiful city panoramas.
Klementinum was, in 16th century after their invitation in Prague by king Ferdinand I, obtained by the Jesuits, who played a very controversial role not only in the Czech history but of whole the Europe.
But let’s restrain ourselves from black & white thinking of religious hate – It was they, who in the years 1623-1756 rebuilt the ancient monastery to a huge convent in baroque style, which then became the most important center of the scholars in the Czech Kingdom.
It were the Jesuits, who opened there the important University library which still seats there until our ages. They cared about the Charles University of Prague, they founded the Museum of Mathematics in the Klementinum 1751, and it was the same Jesuits, who built there an astronomical and meteorological observatory, where, in 1770 began the long trail of the instrumental temperature measurements, which day-by-day persists despite of all further turmoils, uninterrupted by our age of routinely permanent manned space missions and the globalization which brought around also the planetary scare design to introduce the global tax and governance.
But let’s stay just another while in the “idyllic” times of no cars, no trains, no underground, no airplanes, no electricity, no gas, no oil, no central heating, no computers, no nuclear weapons, no fridges, no hot water in the taps, and no TV propaganda…
Age of horses and coaches and feeding the fire.
The industrial age is just beginning. The Klementinum is preparing to host the first industrial exhibition held there in 1791: the year of the adoption of the French Constitution and American Bill of Rights. Population of Prague then? 75,000 thousand.
Are you already tired by all the history? OK, let’s come back to the present. Now Prague has 1,290,000 inhabitants–17 times more than in 1790, with numerous other towns in the metropolitan area, electricity everywhere, central heating, fridges, computers, microwaves, digital TV propaganda, cars, trams, trains, underground, airplanes… How much does this impact our figure of 1.02°C temp. rise?
Thanks to the flaws in the process of the global temperature record keeping at NOAA in USA and subsequently in the CRU in the UK–paradoxically–we can estimate. How?
I now ask that you remember how GISS (CRU and NOAA, too) scandalously connected the Klementinum record with the record from the Prague airport Ruzyne, and erased the important name Klementinum from the climatic history–because this could be, paradoxically–our key!
Let’s use the CRU’s homogenized “Praha/Ruzyne” data** and compare mean temperature in last decade against the intact Klementinum record and all time averages.
As we already know, the Klementinum record showed that there is in the last decade +1.73°C difference against the average temperature of the whole record. Now we go to the dataset of Ruzyne,an airport outside of the Prague, and do the same. The difference of the last decade (1999-2008 – the CRU dataset unfortunately hasn’t 2009 data) mean from the “Ruzyne” baseline? 1.24°C. (The average of the decade 1999-2008 in the original Klementinum record is exactly the same as for the decade 2000-2009 and its difference from the whole record average is 1.73°C.)
That’s our present UHI warming bias for Klementinum. If we would pretend there is no heat island at all at the Prague airport Ruzyne.***
Now we arrive to grand finale: the difference between the decade 1790-1799 and the our recent decade 2000-2009 we counted as 1.02°C. Now we subtract the Klementinum UHI we just came to:
And that is our warming between the decade 1790-1799 and our last decade 2000-2009.
I don’t know if the globe is undergoing a “catastrophic global warming” in last century. But Prague, and central Europe? Not really.
* for purpose of this analysis I count decades arbitrarily from zero year. The reason is pragmatic–to not have a need to wait another year with this paper until the decade 2001-2010 ended.
** The CRU is source of the Klementinum/Ruzyne dataset homogenization. The CRU datasets from Czech stations–as probably the only temperature records from CRU officially publicly available at the time–were recently published by the Czech climatologists who obtained them from CRU despite Phil Jones declared the data “missing”, “lost during the moving”. The CRU datasets of the Czech stations can be downloaded here.
*** If I would not omitted it the Klementinum UHI warming bias the result would be even higher – and I estimate it will add another at least 0.1°C. But I omitted it because I also know that there was at least some artificial heat in Prague in the 1790′s – when Prague had the 75,000 inhabitants; although, I seriously doubt it would produce even nearly the same heat power dispersed in the surrounding areas like do the loads of jet planes at Ruzyne airport every day and night in our times. Just consider that the heat power produced by only one jetliner engine–in take-off as well as in auto-reverse modes–is comparable with the total solar power showering several dozens of hectares! Insisting, that it has no significant influence on the measured temperatures immediately around I find utterly ludicrous. The met-station Praha/Ruzyne is just 200m from the very frequented runway 31). Only question remains, not if, but how much the air-traffic adds to the measured temperature values. But I leave this question for more qualified people to answer.
NOTE: Other examples of the unique historical temperature records of the world can be found here and I leave it to others to find out what the notorious NOAA, GISS and CRU have done to them and maybe even find out, what the possible estimated UHI subtraction from the recent trend would do with the by Nobel prize laureated anthropological global warming” consensus.” A hint: Check out St. Petersburg.
After the publication of the article in Czech language I got also an interesting reaction from the Czech historian of the climatology Dr. Jiri Svoboda where I’ve found also this in my opinion important testimony against the GISS practices, which I’m allowing myself to translate :
“…It is noteworthy with the GISS panel that when I began use it some ten years ago there the oldest records were normally accessible. Approximately since 2004 or 2003 all the data were cut to 1880, because otherwise it would show, that the warming of our present was virtually the same here 200 years ago.”
© 2010 Jan Zeman, working draft, all rights reserved
Jan Zeman studied IT and psychology of political violence. He is
co-founder of the CZFree.Net community network, was working in the Czech
Senate as political advisor during the hot disputes about the Lisbon
Treaty and he also works as an independent journalist, known for his
book and articles about terrorism, EU politics, energetics and
environmentalism and for his translations of many controversial
documents. His Czech site: janzeman.blog.idnes.cz
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